Daily Market Analysis

Daily Market Analysis for 17 Jan 2012 Close

Welcome to Objectively Defined Non-Ambiguous Market Timing Analysis.

Market Timing Direction: NEUTRAL 

Analysis  Direction  Timely Note
Market Breadth Pattern  Neutral Now we started to see some distribution with more stocks from consolidation being distributed than accumulated. The up gap in morning session was used to sell. However, we need further evidence of strength or weakness to establish a clearer market direction.

The market is still in a Weak market state. 

Primary Breadth Trend  Bullish The primary market breadth has now turned into bullish territory.
Monetary Conditions  Bullish Monetary base started to decline. However, short-term interest is still much lower than longer term interest rate. Thus, Interest Rate Pump factor continues to rise. Monetary policy is still extra easy.

Note: Any change from previous day summary is highlighted in blue.

Below is the forward-looking market timing track record since the blog started. Next day opening price of SPY is used to calculate gain/loss so that we can take advantage of it in a realistic setting. SPY is used for reference only. You can use other instrument of your liking, e.g. TNA, options, futures. For historical back-testing results, please read the last section of Market Breadth Pattern guide.

Date Action SPY Next Day Open Gain/Loss In Percent
2011-Apr-20 BUY (Long) 133.79

2011-May-09 exit 135.17 1.38 1.0%
2011-May-11 SELL (Short) 135.67

2011-May-26 exit 133.00 2.67 2.0%
2011-May-31 BUY (Long) 134.51

2011-Jun-01 exit 131.96 -2.55 -1.9%
2011-Jun-01 SELL (Short) 131.96

2011-Jun-23 exit 128.27 3.69 2.8%
2011-Jun-23 BUY (Long) 128.27

2011-Jul-13 exit 132.09 3.82 3.0%
2011-Jul-21 BUY (Long) 134.52

2011-Jul-26 exit 132.59 -1.93 -1.4%
2011-Jul-27 SELL (Short) 130.60

2011-Aug-09 exit 115.26 15.34 11.7%
2011-Aug-18 SELL (Short) 112.96

2011-Oct-04 exit 112.62 0.34 0.3%
2011-Oct-04 BUY (Long) 112.62

2011-Oct-17 exit 120.14 7.52 6.7%
2011-Oct-17 SELL (Short) 120.14

2011-Oct-21 exit 124.17 -4.03 -3.4%
2011-Oct-27 BUY (Long) 128.00

2011-Nov-09 exit 124.79 -3.21 -2.5%
2011-Nov-09 SELL (Short) 124.79

2011-Nov-30 exit 124.85 -0.06 -0.0%
2011-Dec-05 BUY (Long) 126.21

2011-Dec-14 exit 123.03 -3.18 -2.5%






Winning %
53.8% 53.8%

Win/Loss Ratio
2.0 2.0

Profit Factor
2.3 2.3

Count
13 13







SPY Point Compounded Trade End



Return Max Drawdown
Market Timing since Apr 2011 19.80 15.75% 8.20%
Buy & Hold SPY since Apr 2011 -12.20 -9.12%

Market Breadth Pattern

Primary Market Breadth

Please refer to the following page: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p22957433685

Monetary Conditions

Note: The following charts are updated once every month. The chart was last updated on Nov 30, 2011.

Industry Rotation

Color legend:

  • BLUE: 1 year leader and 1 month leader,
  • LIGHT BLUE: 1 year leader,
  • LIGHT GREEN: 1 month leader,
  • RED: 1 year laggard and 1 month laggard,
  • MAGENTA: 1 year laggard,
  • ORANGE: 1 month laggard.

Earnings Cycle

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.


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