|Market Breadth Pattern||Neutral||As of Friday’s close, there was still no bullish signals generated yet since the new year. However, futures contract are now pointing higher. There is a persistent buying on every sell-off in morning session. This is a good signs for the bulls. We stick with our plan and remain neutral.
The market is still in a Weak market state.
|Primary Breadth Trend||Bearish||The primary market breadth is in bearish territory but has improved.|
|Monetary Conditions||Bullish||Monetary base started to decline. However, short-term interest is still much lower than longer term interest rate. Thus, Interest Rate Pump factor continues to rise. Monetary policy is still extra easy.|
Note: Any change from previous day summary is highlighted in blue.
Below is the forward-looking market timing track record since the blog started. Next day opening price of SPY is used to calculate gain/loss so that we can take advantage of it in a realistic setting. SPY is used for reference only. You can use other instrument of your liking, e.g. TNA, options, futures. For historical back-testing results, please read the last section of Market Breadth Pattern guide.
|Date||Action||SPY Next Day Open||Gain/Loss||In Percent|
|SPY Point||Compounded||Trade End|
|Market Timing||since Apr 2011||19.80||15.75%||8.20%|
|Buy & Hold SPY||since Apr 2011||-12.20||-9.12%|
Market Breadth Pattern
Primary Market Breadth
Please refer to the following page: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p22957433685
Note: The following charts are updated once every month. The chart was last updated on Nov 30, 2011.
- BLUE: 1 year leader and 1 month leader,
- LIGHT BLUE: 1 year leader,
- LIGHT GREEN: 1 month leader,
- RED: 1 year laggard and 1 month laggard,
- MAGENTA: 1 year laggard,
- ORANGE: 1 month laggard.