Daily Market Analysis

Daily Market Analysis for 28 Oct 2011 Close

Welcome to Objectively Defined Non-Ambiguous Market Timing Analysis.

Market Timing Direction: LONG since Oct 27 Close. 

Analysis  Direction  Note
Market Breadth Pattern  Bullish If you look at the indexes, Friday was a mixed day with DJI and SPX barely positive while Nasdaq closed slightly negative. But, under the surface, we have sufficiently more accumulation than distribution. Breadth-wise, it was a positive day.  

We are currently in a Strong market state. We will maintain our Long position until deterioration in breadth appears.

Following yesterday’s commentary, I have added a “trend resumption pattern” into my system. Another pattern in the work is “trend sweeper”. With this, the system will close some loose end. As a result of this modification, what you see in the following chart will be different from our historical decisions. But, as always, our forward looking track record will not be modified. 

Primary Breadth Trend  Bullish The primary market breadth has turned bullish.
Monetary Conditions  Bullish Monetary base started to decline. However, short-term interest is still much lower than longer term interest rate. Thus, Interest Rate Pump factor continues to rise. Monetary policy is still extra easy.

Note: Any change from previous day summary is highlighted in blue.

Below is the forward-looking market timing track record since the blog started. Next day opening price of SPY is used to calculate gain/loss so that we can take advantage of it in a realistic setting. SPY is used for reference only. You can use other instrument of your liking, e.g. TNA, options, futures. For historical back-testing results, please read the last section of Market Breadth Pattern guide.

Date Action SPY Next Day Open Gain/Loss In Percent
2011-Apr-20 BUY (Long) 133.79

2011-May-09 exit 135.17 1.38 1.03%
2011-May-11 SELL (Short) 135.67

2011-May-26 exit 133.00 2.67 1.97%
2011-May-31 BUY (Long) 134.51

2011-Jun-01 exit 131.96 -2.55 -1.90%
2011-Jun-01 SELL (Short) 131.96

2011-Jun-23 exit 128.27 3.69 2.80%
2011-Jun-23 BUY (Long) 128.27

2011-Jul-13 exit 132.09 3.82 2.98%
2011-Jul-21 BUY (Long) 134.52

2011-Jul-26 exit 132.59 -1.93 -1.43%
2011-Jul-27 SELL (Short) 130.60

2011-Aug-09 exit 115.26 15.34 11.75%
2011-Aug-18 SELL (Short) 112.96

2011-Oct-04 exit 112.62 0.34 0.30%
2011-Oct-04 BUY (Long) 112.62

2011-Oct-17 exit 120.14 7.52 6.68%
2011-Oct-17 SELL (Short) 120.14

2011-Oct-21 exit 124.17 -4.03 -3.35%
2011-Oct-27 BUY (Long) 128.00

2011-Oct-29 current* 128.68 0.68 0.53%






Winning %
72.7% 72.7%

Win/Loss Ratio
1.6 1.6

Profit Factor
4.2 4.2

Count
11 11







SPY Point Compounded Trade End



Return Max Drawdown
Market Timing since Apr 2011 26.93 21.86% 3.35%
Corresponding SPY
-5.11 -3.82%

Market Breadth Pattern

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.


Primary Market Breadth

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.


Monetary Conditions

Note: The following charts are updated once every month. The chart was last updated on Oct 21, 2011.

Industry Rotation

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Color legend:

  • BLUE: 1 year leader and 1 month leader,
  • LIGHT BLUE: 1 year leader,
  • LIGHT GREEN: 1 month leader,
  • RED: 1 year laggard and 1 month laggard,
  • MAGENTA: 1 year laggard,
  • ORANGE: 1 month laggard.

Earnings Cycle

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.


Advertisements

About timelysetup

Timely Setup Owner

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 133 other followers

Blog Stats

  • 63,477 hits
%d bloggers like this: