Daily Market Analysis

Daily Market Analysis for 20 Sep 2011 Close

Welcome to Objectively Defined Non-Ambiguous Market Timing Analysis.

Market Timing Direction: SHORT since Aug 18 Close.

 Direction  Note
Market Breadth Pattern  Bearish We saw some distribution yesterday, although not very significant. SPX reversed right at 1,220 resistance level. Thus we maintain our Short position. 

Although this position has not turned profitable yet, we have avoided being whipsawed multiple times. 

On 09 Sep, we witnessed another round of selling which again triggered my bearish DeadCatBounce selling pattern. This reconfirm our bearish stance established on Aug 18 which on the hindsight was established too early. 

In a bear market, history has shown that sharp and short-lived bounces occurred frequently. This often induce novice trader to jump into the bandwagon just before the market continue its march down.

Our Market State monitor is currently in a Weak market state. This means we are already in confirmed bear market.

Primary Market Breadth  Bearish The primary market breadth is in bear market territory.
Monetary Conditions  Bullish Monetary base keeps being added into the system significantly. Similarly, short-term interest is still much lower than longer term interest rate. Thus, Interest Rate Pump factor continues to rise.

Note: Any change from previous day summary is highlighted in blue.

Below is Market Timing Track Record Summary since the Blog Started. Next day opening price of SPY is used to calculate gain/loss.

 

Date Action SPY Gain/Loss In Percent
2011-Apr-20 Long 133.79

2011-May-09 Exit Long 135.17 1.38 1.03%
2011-May-11 Short 133.50

2011-May-26 Exit Short 133.00 0.50 0.37%
2011-May-31 Long 134.51

2011-Jun-01 Exit Long 131.96 -2.55 -1.90%
2011-Jun-01 Short 131.96

2011-Jun-23 Exit Short 128.27 3.69 2.80%
2011-Jun-23 Long 128.27

2011-Jul-13 Exit Long 132.09 3.82 2.98%
2011-Jul-21 Long 134.52

2011-Jul-26 Exit Long 132.59 -1.93 -1.43%
2011-Jul-27 Short 130.60

2011-Aug-09 Exit Short 115.26 15.34 11.75%
2011-Aug-18 Short 112.96


*Current 120.17 -7.21 -6.38%






Winning %
62.5%

Win/Loss Ratio
1.3

Profit Factor
2.1

Count
8







SPY Point Compounded Trade End



Return Max Drawdown
Market Timing
13.04 8.59% 6.38%
Corresponding SPY
-13.62 -10.17%

Click on the following links for information on Market Timing Analysis in general, guides on Market Breadth Pattern, Primary Market Breadth, and Monetary Conditions.

Market Breadth Patterns 

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Primary Market Breadth

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Monetary Conditions

Note: The following charts are updated once every other week. The chart was last updated on August 22, 2011.

Industry Rotation

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Color legend:

  • BLUE: 1 year leader and 1 month leader,
  • LIGHT BLUE: 1 year leader,
  • LIGHT GREEN: 1 month leader,
  • RED: 1 year laggard and 1 month laggard,
  • MAGENTA: 1 year laggard,
  • ORANGE: 1 month laggard.

Earnings Cycle





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About timelysetup

Timely Setup Owner

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