Daily Market Analysis

Daily Market Analysis for 25 Aug 2011 Close

Welcome to Objectively Defined Non-Ambiguous Market Timing Analysis.

Market Timing Direction: SHORT since Aug 18 Close.

 Direction  Note
Market Breadth Pattern  Bearish After only two days of bounce attempt, we saw modest selling yesterday. But there were only small number of stocks considered really distributed, 103 from down trending stocks and 21 from range-bound stocks. These are very small number. Thus we are still trapped in de-facto range-bound mode as perhaps everyone is waiting until Bernanke speech to take major position. However, my market timing model still point to bearish side until significant buying appears.

On August 18, we witnessed heavy selling after seven days of bounce. This selling triggered my bearish DeadCatBounce selling pattern which brought us back into bearish direction.

Our Market State monitor is currently in a Weak market state. This means we are already in confirmed bear market.

Primary Market Breadth  Bearish The primary market breadth has now confirmed the down trend.
Monetary Conditions  Bullish Monetary base keeps being added into the system significantly. Similarly, short-term interest is still much lower than longer term interest rate. Thus, Interest Rate Pump factor continues to rise.

Note: Any change from previous day summary is highlighted in blue.

Date Action SPY Gain/Loss In Percent
2011-Apr-20 Long 133.79

2011-May-09 Exit Long 135.17 1.38 1.03%
2011-May-11 Short 133.50

2011-May-26 Exit Short 133.00 0.50 0.37%
2011-May-31 Long 134.51

2011-Jun-01 Exit Long 131.96 -2.55 -1.90%
2011-Jun-01 Short 131.96

2011-Jun-23 Exit Short 128.27 3.69 2.80%
2011-Jun-23 Long 128.27

2011-Jul-13 Exit Long 132.09 3.82 2.98%
2011-Jul-21 Long 134.52

2011-Jul-26 Exit Long 132.59 -1.93 -1.43%
2011-Jul-27 Short 130.60

2011-Aug-09 Exit Short 115.26 15.34 11.75%
2011-Aug-18 Short 112.96

*Current 116.28 -3.32 -2.94%

Winning %

Win/Loss Ratio

Profit Factor


Market Timing Cumulative Performance
16.93 12.66%
Corresponding SPY Performance
-17.51 -13.08%

Click on the following links for information on Market Timing Analysis in general, guides on Market Breadth Pattern, Primary Market Breadth, and Monetary Conditions.Market Timing Track Record Summary since the Blog Started. Next day opening price of SPY is used to calculate gain/loss.

Market Breadth Patterns 

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Primary Market Breadth

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Monetary Conditions

Note: The following charts are updated once every other week. The chart was last updated on August 22, 2011.

Industry Rotation

Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.

Earnings Cycle


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