Welcome to Objectively Defined Non-Ambiguous Market Timing Analysis.
Market Timing Direction: LONG since Jan 18 Close. See complete track record of the market timing performance.
| Analysis | Direction | Timely Note |
| Market Breadth Pattern | Bullish | Monday was a relatively neutral day with not much distribution nor accumulation observed.
This system is at heart a trend following and exhaustion reversal system. Unless significant weaknesses is observed, we will maintain our Long exposure. The market is still in a Weak market state. If the pace of accumulation continue, we might have a strong market in the next few days. If this happen, breakout swing-trading strategy will likely to do well. |
| Primary Breadth Trend | Bullish | The primary market breadth has now turned into bullish territory. |
| Monetary Conditions | Bullish | Monetary base started to decline. However, short-term interest is still much lower than longer term interest rate. Thus, Interest Rate Pump factor continues to rise. Monetary policy is still extra easy. |
Note: Any change from previous day summary is highlighted in blue.
Market Breadth Pattern
Primary Market Breadth
Please refer to the following page: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p22957433685
Monetary Conditions
Note: The following charts are updated once every month. The chart was last updated on Nov 30, 2011.
Industry Rotation
Color legend:
- BLUE: 1 year leader and 1 month leader,
- LIGHT BLUE: 1 year leader,
- LIGHT GREEN: 1 month leader,
- RED: 1 year laggard and 1 month laggard,
- MAGENTA: 1 year laggard,
- ORANGE: 1 month laggard.
Earnings Cycle
Click on the Chart itself to see the bigger version.
timely i am not sure but if I remember correctly it looks like this is the first time all 3 of your mkt timing components are all bullish, at least since I started following your blog. Just wondering if you may have any thoughts on whether the mkt may be gearing up for an intermediate trend upswing.
Posted by mike | January 24, 2012, 11:57 amHi Mike, this is not the first time that all three components are bullish. Early July 2011 was another example of such periods.
The three components attempt to characterize three different investment horizons. In that sense, if all three are bullish, we can assume strong tailwinds for the market. In addition to that, we are now seeing less synchronicity in individual stocks movement. This is another character of longer lasting bull market.
So, personally I believe the upswing still have some room to go. But I would take it one day at a time. Now is the stock picker’s market. I am focusing my energy on finding stocks which are likely to pop up. Swing trading strategy might have a good fortune in the short run.
Posted by timelysetup | January 25, 2012, 3:23 am